After, or even during, a major event—mass shooting, weather disturbance, actions as a result of a pandemic—in discussions about public policy or legislation, we often see “How would you feel if it were you/your child/your parent?” I have told friends several times, “I don’t know how I would feel in that situation, and neither do you.” Now I have scientific evidence to support my claim. It turns out that none of us is good at knowing how we’ll feel in the future if we don’t have a reference point in the past.
Dr. Katy Milkman pointed this out in Choiceology podcast episode 7 from way back in 2018. This episode had such a powerful impact on me that I didn’t even realize how log ago it was. It opens with New York Times bestselling business author Dan Heath asking passersby who their favorite bands were ten years ago, and how much they would pay for a ticket today to see that band. The responses ranged between $10 and $30. Mr. Heath then asked the same people who their favorite bands are today and how much they believed they would pay to see that band ten years from now. The respondents felt they would easily be willing to pay more than $100 to see today’s favorite band. The point of the experience was to demonstrate that it was easy to see how things had changed from a point in the past to today, but that casting forward and seeing the changes likely to take place is more difficult. This informal and unscientific study is based on the work of psychologists Dan Gilbert and Timothy Wilson, which was much more formal and scientific.
The podcast presents the experiences of two people who have each experienced life-changing events. One was an Olympic gold medalist, and the other was a man who broke his neck diving out of a boat into a lake, leaving him unable to move on his own, unable to breathe without assistance. Two stories, one of euphoric high, the other of despondent and desperate low.
The Olympian’s life had been centered around training and working toward a particular goal, and after she reached it, she didn’t know what came next. Her life imploded, her marriage included, because it had never occurred to her that there was an “after I win the gold medal” for which she had to plan. She was asked, “Did your post-Olympic experience match your expectations?” Her response was that it had not, because she had always thought that after you reach such a lofty goal, everything just sort of “worked out.”
The quadriplegic had the option, under Michigan law, to end his life if he so chose, because he would never be able to function independently. He had considered how he might kill himself, but, in the moment of decision, he chose to live, knowing that everything he had planned was suddenly going to be very different.
Both of these stories have satisfying outcomes, but the outcomes were not what either had considered at the moment of change for them. The Olympian lives a “normal” life, working a nice office job, raising a family. The injured man started a company that provides adaptive equipment for impaired patients and provides advocacy for others.
Looking ten years down the road from both events, neither is what each expected.
The reason for this is because we can look at a possible future event, but we cannot anticipate all of the incidents and moments that lead from now to then. If you are an Olympian, and someone asks you what your life looks like ten years down the road, you may imagine endorsements, appearances, offers from members of the opposite sex, riding the wave of your success. If you are injured to the point of complete loss of independence, you may envision lingering despair, absence of any dignity, no possibility of a meaningful life. Both of these are possibilities, but there is also a full range of opportunities and events between the ends of the spectrum, and we simply cannot see them all.
Whatever comes in your life, you may set goals and make plans. You may think that a new car, a new job, a new love, will change everything for you. “If only…” this or that would happen, everything will be wonderful. The reality is that even when your favorite team wins the championship, there’s still laundry to do. If you gain the new job or promotion, it’s still work that you are responsible to accomplish.
The point is not to undermine great accomplishment and efforts. If you earn it, by all means, own it and enjoy it. The point is that we play folly if we believe we know how we will feel in the future. If you’ve ever been disappointed by something you eagerly anticipated, you have experienced the downside of affective forecasting. We’re just not good at it.